CORNYN PREDICTS – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  Republican Senator John Cornyn of Texas is one of the shrewdest political minds on the Hill, so his assessment of the GOP future in congressional races is worth considering:

Texas Sen. John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, predicted on Sunday that the GOP will make gains in November’s midterm elections but efforts to overtake Democrats may take two election cycles.

“If everything goes our way, I can see a pathway there,” Cornyn said on "Fox News Sunday." “Realistically, I think it’ll be a two-cycle effort.”

But Cornyn said Republican gains in the House and Senate will push President Barack Obama to take more centrist positions on issues after the election. He drew connections between this election and GOP gains in the 1990s during President Bill Clinton's administration.

“It can force President Obama to the middle as it did with President Clinton,” Cornyn said.

COMMENT:  Cornyn is probably right.  We can see a scenario where the GOP takes the House this November, but the Senate would require that almost everything go the Republicans' way.  Also, despite GOP leads at the moment, races tend to tighten as election day approaches.  And the Dems will be waging a fierce campaign.

But will Obama take a more centrist position if his party does poorly?  As Cornyn points out, that's what Clinton did after the Dems' 1994 debacle, and it helped him get reelected in 1996.  Obama, though, is a different personality – far more ideological and with a much stronger leftist pedigree.   In addition, the Democrats likely to get knocked off in November aren't the liberals, who often have safe seats in large urban areas, but the moderates, who are barely clinging to their seats in swing districts.  Liberals are not interested in compromise, and they may actually wind up stronger in the Democratic Party than they are now. 

There's also the intriguing question of whether Obama wants to run again in 2012.  People assume that he does, but he strikes me as a man who really doesn't like the job of president, although he enjoys the perks.  Big plane.  Great eats.  Nice trips.  If faced with an uphill struggle in 2012, he may well opt for early retirement.

It will be a battle for us all the way.  This year is an important way station.  It's 2012 that's the Emerald City.

August 16, 2010